A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China.