Peering into the crystal ball: influenza pandemics and vaccine efficacy.

The looming threat of a new influenza virus pandemic has fueled ambitious efforts to devise more predictive parameters for assessing the risks associated with emergent virus strains. At the same time, a comprehensive understanding of critical factors that can accurately predict the outcome of vaccination is sorely needed in order to improve the effectiveness of influenza virus vaccines. Will new studies aimed at identifying adaptations required for virus transmissibility and systems-level analyses of influenza virus vaccine responses provide an improved framework for predictive models of viral adaptation and vaccine efficacy?