Massive blood transfusion after the first cut in liver transplantation predicts renal outcome and survival.

INTRODUCTION: Transfusion requirements of blood products may provide useful prognostic factors for the prediction of short-term patient mortality and renal outcome after liver transplantation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two hundred ninety-one consecutive liver transplants in adults were analysed retrospectively. Combined and living-related liver transplants were excluded. The amount of transfused packed red blood cells (PRBC) and units of platelets (UP) within the first 48 h were investigated as prognostic factors to predict short-term patient mortality and renal outcome. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with area under the curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow tests and Brier scores were used to calculate overall model correctness, model calibration and accuracy of prognostic factors. Cut-off values were determined with the best Youden index.
RESULTS: The potential clinical usefulness of PRBC as a prognostic factor to predict 30-day mortality (cut-off 17.5 units) and post-transplant haemodialysis (cut-off 12.5 units) could be demonstrated with AUCs >0.7 (0.712 and 0.794, respectively). Hosmer-Lemeshow test results and Brier scores indicated good overall model correctness, model calibration and accuracy. The UP proved as an equally clinically useful prognostic factor to predict end-stage renal disease (cut-off 3.5 units; AUC = 0.763). The association of cut-off levels of PRBC with patient survival (p < 0.001, log-rank test) and dialysis-free survival (p < 0.001, log-rank test) was significant (cut-off levels 17.5 and 12.5 units, respectively) as well as the association of UP with dialysis-free survival (p < 0.001, log-rank test) (cut-off level 3.5 units).
CONCLUSIONS: The impressive discriminative power of these simple prognostic factors for the prediction of outcome after liver transplantation emphasizes the relevance of strategies to avoid excessive transfusion requirements.