BACKGROUND: Persistent organ failure and infected pancreatic necrosis are major determinants of mortality in acute pancreatitis, but there is a gap in the literature assessing the best available predictors of these two determinants. The purpose of this review was to investigate the utility of predictors of persistent organ failure and infected pancreatic necrosis in patients with acute pancreatitis, both alone and in combination. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of the literature in 3 databases for prospective studies evaluating predictors of persistent organ failure, infected pancreatic necrosis, or both, with strict eligibility criteria. RESULTS: The best predictors of persistent organ failure were the Japanese Severity Score and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis when the evaluation was performed within 48h of admission, and blood urea nitrogen and Japanese Severity Score after 48h of admission. Systemic Inflammation Response Syndrome was a poor predictor of persistent organ failure. The best predictor of infected pancreatic necrosis was procalcitonin. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the best available data, it is justifiable to use blood urea nitrogen for prediction of persistent organ failure after 48h of admission and procalcitonin for prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis in patients with confirmed pancreatic necrosis. There is no predictor of persistent organ failure that can be justifiably used in clinical practice within 48h of admission.
BACKGROUND: Persistent organ failure and infected pancreatic necrosis are major determinants of mortality in acute pancreatitis, but there is a gap in the literature assessing the best available predictors of these two determinants. The purpose of this review was to investigate the utility of predictors of persistent organ failure and infected pancreatic necrosis in patients with acute pancreatitis, both alone and in combination. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of the literature in 3 databases for prospective studies evaluating predictors of persistent organ failure, infected pancreatic necrosis, or both, with strict eligibility criteria. RESULTS: The best predictors of persistent organ failure were the Japanese Severity Score and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis when the evaluation was performed within 48h of admission, and blood ureanitrogen and Japanese Severity Score after 48h of admission. Systemic Inflammation Response Syndrome was a poor predictor of persistent organ failure. The best predictor of infected pancreatic necrosis was procalcitonin. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the best available data, it is justifiable to use blood ureanitrogen for prediction of persistent organ failure after 48h of admission and procalcitonin for prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis in patients with confirmed pancreatic necrosis. There is no predictor of persistent organ failure that can be justifiably used in clinical practice within 48h of admission.
Authors: Elham Afghani; Stephen J Pandol; Tooru Shimosegawa; Robert Sutton; Bechien U Wu; Santhi Swaroop Vege; Fred Gorelick; Morihisa Hirota; John Windsor; Simon K Lo; Martin L Freeman; Markus M Lerch; Yoshihisa Tsuji; Gil Y Melmed; Wahid Wassef; Julia Mayerle Journal: Pancreas Date: 2015-11 Impact factor: 3.327
Authors: Ruma G Singh; Sayali A Pendharkar; Nicola A Gillies; Victor Miranda-Soberanis; Lindsay D Plank; Maxim S Petrov Journal: Clin Exp Med Date: 2017-02-06 Impact factor: 3.984
Authors: Lu Ke; Zhi-Hui Tong; Wei-Qin Li; Congye Wu; Ning Li; John A Windsor; Jie-Shou Li; Maxim S Petrov Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) Date: 2014-11 Impact factor: 1.889