Prediction of fishing effort distributions using boosted regression trees.

Concerns about bycatch of protected species have become a dominant factor shaping fisheries management. However, efforts to mitigate bycatch are often hindered by a lack of data on the distributions of fishing effort and protected species. One approach to overcoming this problem has been to overlay the distribution of past fishing effort with known locations of protected species, often obtained through satellite telemetry and occurrence data, to identify potential bycatch hotspots. This approach, however, generates static bycatch risk maps, calling into question their ability to forecast into the future, particularly when dealing with spatiotemporally dynamic fisheries and highly migratory bycatch species. In this study, we use boosted regression trees to model the spatiotemporal distribution of fishing effort for two distinct fisheries in the North Pacific Ocean, the albacore (Thunnus alalunga) troll fishery and the California drift gillnet fishery that targets swordfish (Xiphias gladius). Our results suggest that it is possible to accurately predict fishing effort using < 10 readily available predictor variables (cross-validated correlations between model predictions and observed data -0.6). Although the two fisheries are quite different in their gears and fishing areas, their respective models had high predictive ability, even when input data sets were restricted to a fraction of the full time series. The implications for conservation and management are encouraging: Across a range of target species, fishing methods, and spatial scales, even a relatively short time series of fisheries data may suffice to accurately predict the location of fishing effort into the future. In combination with species distribution modeling of bycatch species, this approach holds promise as a mitigation tool when observer data are limited. Even in data-rich regions, modeling fishing effort and bycatch may provide more accurate estimates of bycatch risk than partial observer coverage for fisheries and bycatch species that are heavily influenced by dynamic oceanographic conditions.