Literature DB >> 24607746

Transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) infection in mainland China.

Yanni Xiao1, Xiaodan Sun2, Sanyi Tang3, Jianhong Wu4.   

Abstract

We propose and analyze a mathematical model to mimic its transmission dynamics to assess the transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. By fitting the model to data of the confirmed human cases we estimate the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission as 0.467 (95% CI 0.387-0.651). Simulation results indicate that approximate twofold of the current human-to-human transmission rate or periodic outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry may induce an outbreak in human. Through the recent limited transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, a new outbreak may be possible due to virus mutation and adaption or periodic outbreaks in poultry, and hence careful surveillance and persistent intervention strategies in poultry have to be required.
Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Entities:  

Keywords:  Basic reproduction number; Interventions; Mathematical model; Outbreak

Mesh：

Year:  2014        PMID： 24607746     DOI： 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.038

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  J Theor Biol        ISSN： 0022-5193            Impact factor:   2.691


  9 in total

Review 1.  The pandemic potential of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus: a review.

Authors:  W D Tanner; D J A Toth; A V Gundlapalli
Journal:  Epidemiol Infect       Date:  2015-07-24       Impact factor: 4.434

2.  Global dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models with psychological effect.

Authors:  Sanhong Liu; Liuyong Pang; Shigui Ruan; Xinan Zhang
Journal:  Comput Math Methods Med       Date:  2015-03-12       Impact factor: 2.238

3.  Quantification of bird-to-bird and bird-to-human infections during 2013 novel H7N9 avian influenza outbreak in China.

Authors:  Ying-Hen Hsieh; Jianhong Wu; Jian Fang; Yong Yang; Jie Lou
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2014-12-05       Impact factor: 3.240

4.  Seasonality of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus in China-Fitting Simple Epidemic Models to Human Cases.

Authors:  Qianying Lin; Zhigui Lin; Alice P Y Chiu; Daihai He
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2016-03-10       Impact factor: 3.240

5.  Determination of original infection source of H7N9 avian influenza by dynamical model.

Authors:  Juan Zhang; Zhen Jin; Gui-Quan Sun; Xiang-Dong Sun; You-Ming Wang; Baoxu Huang
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2014-05-02       Impact factor: 4.379

6.  Global Dynamics of an Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Epidemic Model with Latent Period and Nonlinear Recovery Rate.

Authors:  Rui Mu; Youping Yang
Journal:  Comput Math Methods Med       Date:  2018-02-22       Impact factor: 2.238

7.  Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (R 0) of influenza, Using Canada 2009 and 2017-18 A (H1N1) Data.

Authors:  Roya Nikbakht; Mohammad Reza Baneshi; Abbas Bahrampour; Abolfazl Hosseinnataj
Journal:  J Res Med Sci       Date:  2019-07-24       Impact factor: 1.852

8.  Virus-induced pathogenesis, vaccine development, and diagnosis of novel H7N9 avian influenza A virus in humans: a systemic literature review.

Authors:  Wen-Hung Wang; Esmeralda Merari Erazo; Max R Chang Ishcol; Chih-Yen Lin; Wanchai Assavalapsakul; Arunee Thitithanyanont; Sheng-Fan Wang
Journal:  J Int Med Res       Date:  2019-05-08       Impact factor: 1.671

9.  Interpreting the transmissibility of the avian influenza A(H7N9) infection from 2013 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China.

Authors:  K C Chong; X Wang; S Liu; J Cai; X Su; B C Zee; G Tam; M H Wang; E Chen
Journal:  Epidemiol Infect       Date:  2015-12-09       Impact factor: 2.451
  9 in total

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