Distributed and dynamic modelling of hydrology, phosphorus and ecology in the Hampshire Avon and Blashford Lakes: evaluating alternative strategies to meet WFD standards.

The issues of diffuse and point source phosphorus (P) pollution in the Hampshire Avon and Blashford Lakes are explored using a catchment model of the river system. A multibranch, process based, dynamic water quality model (INCA-P) has been applied to the whole river system to simulate water fluxes, total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations and ecology. The model has been used to assess impacts of both agricultural runoff and point sources from waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) on water quality. The results show that agriculture contributes approximately 40% of the phosphorus load and point sources the other 60% of the load in this catchment. A set of scenarios have been investigated to assess the impacts of alternative phosphorus reduction strategies and it is shown that a combined strategy of agricultural phosphorus reduction through either fertiliser reductions or better phosphorus management together with improved treatment at WWTPs would reduce the SRP concentrations in the river to acceptable levels to meet the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requirements. A seasonal strategy for WWTP phosphorus reductions would achieve significant benefits at reduced cost.