Simulation of safety: a review of the state of the art in road safety simulation modelling.

Recent decades have seen considerable growth in computer capabilities, data collection technology and communication mediums. This growth has had considerable impact on our ability to replicate driver behaviour and understand the processes involved in failures in the traffic system. From time to time it is necessary to assess the level of development as a basis of determining how far we have come. This paper sets out to assess the state of the art in the use of computer models to simulate and assess the level of safety in existing and future traffic systems. It reviews developments in the area of road safety simulation models. In particular, it reviews computer models of driver and vehicle behaviour within a road context. It focuses on stochastic numerical models of traffic behaviour and how reliable these are in estimating levels of safety on the traffic network. Models of this type are commonly used in the assessment of traffic systems for capacity, delay and general performance. Adding safety to this assessment regime may allow more comprehensive assessment of future traffic systems. To date the models have focused primarily on vehicular traffic that is, cars and heavy vehicles. It has been shown that these models have potential in measuring the level of conflict on parts of the network and the measure of conflict correlated well with crash statistics. Interest in the prediction of crashes and crash severity is growing and new models are focusing on the continuum of general traffic conditions, conflict, severe conflict, crash and severe crashes. The paper also explores the general data types used to develop, calibrate and validate these models. Recent technological development in in-vehicle data collection, driver simulators and machine learning offers considerable potential for improving the behavioural base, rigour and application of road safety simulation models. The paper closes with some indication of areas of future development.