Prioritizing Child Pornography Notifications: Predicting Direct Victimization.

The growing number of notifications for child pornography (CP) possession constitutes a capacity problem for police forces entrusted with the investigation of these offenses. Notifications of CP offenses in which the investigation reveals concurrent direct victimization, in the form of contact offenses, grooming, online offending, or the production of CP material, form a potential target group for prioritization. The first of the twofold aims of this study was to validate the occurring distinction between mixed suspects (i.e., CP possession suspects who were also ever associated with direct victimization) and CP-only suspects (i.e., CP possession suspects who were never associated with direct victimization) to predict an outcome of the investigation including direct victimization. The second aim was to explore variables related to direct victimization among CP-only suspects. A total of 150 files of police investigations into notifications for CP offenses were studied. Findings confirmed significantly greater prevalence of direct victimization as an outcome of the investigation among mixed suspects than CP-only suspects (90% vs. 10%). Among CP-only suspects, direct victimization was predicted by (a) prior police contacts, charges, or convictions concerning noncontact sexual offending, (b) the confiscation of more than two computers during the house search, and (c) a more serious nature of the CP material that formed the basis for the notification in terms of younger victims and more extreme content. These variables may point to a small subgroup of heavily invested CP offenders who are at a higher risk to cross the line to direct victimization. Cross-validation of these preliminary findings is indicated.