E Losina1, S A Burbine2, L G Suter3, D J Hunter4, D H Solomon5, M E Daigle6, E E Dervan7, J M Jordan8, J N Katz9. 1. Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Section of Clinical Sciences, Division of Rheumatology, Immunology and Allergy, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: elosina@partners.org. 2. Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: sara.burbine@gmail.com. 3. Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. Electronic address: lisa.suter@yale.edu. 4. University of Sydney and Royal North Shore Hospital, Sydney, Australia. Electronic address: david.hunter@sydney.edu.au. 5. Section of Clinical Sciences, Division of Rheumatology, Immunology and Allergy, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: dsolomon@partners.org. 6. Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: m.e.daigle@gmail.com. 7. Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: edervan@partners.org. 8. Thurston Arthritis Research Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA. Electronic address: joanne_jordan@med.unc.edu. 9. Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Section of Clinical Sciences, Division of Rheumatology, Immunology and Allergy, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: jnkatz@partners.org.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the target populations and drug efficacy, toxicity, cost, and initiation age thresholds under which a pharmacologic regimen for knee osteoarthritis (OA) prevention could be cost-effective. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model, a validated state-transition simulation model of knee OA, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using disease-modifying OA drugs (DMOADs) as prophylaxis for the disease. We assessed four cohorts at varying risk for developing OA: (1) no risk factors, (2) obese, (3) history of knee injury, and (4) high-risk (obese with history of knee injury). The base case DMOAD was initiated at age 50 with 40% efficacy in the first year, 5% failure per subsequent year, 0.22% major toxicity, and annual cost of $1,000. Outcomes included costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Key parameters were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: For the high-risk cohort, base case prophylaxis increased quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) by 0.04 and lifetime costs by $4,600, and produced an ICER of $118,000 per QALY gained. ICERs >$150,000/QALY were observed when comparing the base case DMOAD to the standard of care in the knee injury only cohort; for the obese only and no risk factors cohorts, the base case DMOAD was less cost-effective than the standard of care. Regimens priced at $3,000 per year and higher demonstrated ICERs above cost-effectiveness thresholds consistent with current US standards. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of DMOADs for OA prevention for persons at high risk for incident OA may be comparable to other accepted preventive therapies.
OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the target populations and drug efficacy, toxicity, cost, and initiation age thresholds under which a pharmacologic regimen for knee osteoarthritis (OA) prevention could be cost-effective. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model, a validated state-transition simulation model of knee OA, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using disease-modifying OA drugs (DMOADs) as prophylaxis for the disease. We assessed four cohorts at varying risk for developing OA: (1) no risk factors, (2) obese, (3) history of knee injury, and (4) high-risk (obese with history of knee injury). The base case DMOAD was initiated at age 50 with 40% efficacy in the first year, 5% failure per subsequent year, 0.22% major toxicity, and annual cost of $1,000. Outcomes included costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Key parameters were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: For the high-risk cohort, base case prophylaxis increased quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) by 0.04 and lifetime costs by $4,600, and produced an ICER of $118,000 per QALY gained. ICERs >$150,000/QALY were observed when comparing the base case DMOAD to the standard of care in the knee injury only cohort; for the obese only and no risk factors cohorts, the base case DMOAD was less cost-effective than the standard of care. Regimens priced at $3,000 per year and higher demonstrated ICERs above cost-effectiveness thresholds consistent with current US standards. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of DMOADs for OA prevention for persons at high risk for incident OA may be comparable to other accepted preventive therapies.
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