Karen E Huang1, Marc Lipsitch, Jeffrey Shaman, Edward Goldstein. 1. From the aDepartment of Epidemiology, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA; bDepartment of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA; and cDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There is limited information on differences in the dynamics of influenza transmission during time periods when schools are open compared with periods when they are closed. METHODS: Data on school openings, influenza surveillance, and absolute humidity were incorporated into a regression model to estimate the increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the opening of school in 10 US states. RESULTS: The estimate for the average increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the beginning of the school year was 19.5% (95% credible interval = 10%-29%). CONCLUSIONS: Whether schools are open or closed can have a major impact on community transmission dynamics of influenza.
BACKGROUND: There is limited information on differences in the dynamics of influenza transmission during time periods when schools are open compared with periods when they are closed. METHODS: Data on school openings, influenza surveillance, and absolute humidity were incorporated into a regression model to estimate the increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the opening of school in 10 US states. RESULTS: The estimate for the average increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the beginning of the school year was 19.5% (95% credible interval = 10%-29%). CONCLUSIONS: Whether schools are open or closed can have a major impact on community transmission dynamics of influenza.
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