BACKGROUND: In the United States, there will be a shortage of medical oncologists (MO) by 2020. However, this information is not available for Europe. The aim of this study was to assess the current number of MO in the 27 European Union (27-EU) countries and to predict their availability by 2020. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Between June 2012 and January 2013, a survey was submitted to health authorities, medical oncology societies, and personal contacts in all 27-EU countries in order to gather annual data on the number of practicing MO. Data were collected by e-mail, telephone contact, or through research on official websites. Data regarding cancer incidence in 2008 and projections for 2015 and 2020 were obtained through Globocan. The mean annual increase in the number of MO was calculated for each country. The total number of MO by 2015 and 2020 was estimated, and the ratio of new cancer cases versus number of MO was calculated for 2008, 2015, and 2020. RESULTS: Twelve countries provided sufficient data. The average mean annual increase in the total number of MO was 5.3% (range 1.8%-8.7%), with Belgium being the lowest and UK the highest. The 2008 ratio of cancer cases versus MO was lowest in Hungary (113) and highest in UK (1067). A favorable decrease in this ratio was estimated in most countries. CONCLUSION: Our estimates, based on incidence and not on prevalence, indicate that MO availability will probably meet the projected need in most of the 12 countries analyzed, provided that: (i) these countries maintain their rate of annual increase in MO; and (ii) no unforeseen changes occur in cancer incidence. Unfortunately, minimal information is available for Eastern Europe. Our data call for the prospective surveillance of the cancer burden and MO availability to ensure adequate and equal care for cancer patients throughout Europe.
BACKGROUND: In the United States, there will be a shortage of medical oncologists (MO) by 2020. However, this information is not available for Europe. The aim of this study was to assess the current number of MO in the 27 European Union (27-EU) countries and to predict their availability by 2020. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Between June 2012 and January 2013, a survey was submitted to health authorities, medical oncology societies, and personal contacts in all 27-EU countries in order to gather annual data on the number of practicing MO. Data were collected by e-mail, telephone contact, or through research on official websites. Data regarding cancer incidence in 2008 and projections for 2015 and 2020 were obtained through Globocan. The mean annual increase in the number of MO was calculated for each country. The total number of MO by 2015 and 2020 was estimated, and the ratio of new cancer cases versus number of MO was calculated for 2008, 2015, and 2020. RESULTS: Twelve countries provided sufficient data. The average mean annual increase in the total number of MO was 5.3% (range 1.8%-8.7%), with Belgium being the lowest and UK the highest. The 2008 ratio of cancer cases versus MO was lowest in Hungary (113) and highest in UK (1067). A favorable decrease in this ratio was estimated in most countries. CONCLUSION: Our estimates, based on incidence and not on prevalence, indicate that MO availability will probably meet the projected need in most of the 12 countries analyzed, provided that: (i) these countries maintain their rate of annual increase in MO; and (ii) no unforeseen changes occur in cancer incidence. Unfortunately, minimal information is available for Eastern Europe. Our data call for the prospective surveillance of the cancer burden and MO availability to ensure adequate and equal care for cancerpatients throughout Europe.
Entities:
Keywords:
Europe; medical oncology; oncology prediction
Authors: Richard Baird; Ian Banks; David Cameron; John Chester; Helena Earl; Mark Flannagan; Adam Januszewski; Richard Kennedy; Sarah Payne; Emlyn Samuel; Hannah Taylor; Roshan Agarwal; Samreen Ahmed; Caroline Archer; Ruth Board; Judith Carser; Ellen Copson; David Cunningham; Rob Coleman; Adam Dangoor; Graham Dark; Diana Eccles; Chris Gallagher; Adam Glaser; Richard Griffiths; Geoff Hall; Marcia Hall; Danielle Harari; Michael Hawkins; Mark Hill; Peter Johnson; Alison Jones; Tania Kalsi; Eleni Karapanagiotou; Zoe Kemp; Janine Mansi; Ernie Marshall; Alex Mitchell; Maung Moe; Caroline Michie; Richard Neal; Tom Newsom-Davis; Alison Norton; Richard Osborne; Gargi Patel; John Radford; Alistair Ring; Emily Shaw; Rod Skinner; Dan Stark; Sam Turnbull; Galina Velikova; Jeff White; Alison Young; Johnathan Joffe; Peter Selby Journal: Ecancermedicalscience Date: 2016-01-05
Authors: Alex Broom; W K Tim Wong; Emma Kirby; David Sibbritt; Deme Karikios; Rosemary Harrup; Zarnie Lwin Journal: PLoS One Date: 2016-11-30 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: F Rivera; R Andres; E Felip; R Garcia-Campelo; P Lianes; A Llombart; J M Piera; J Puente; C A Rodriguez; R Vera; J A Virizuela; M Martin; P Garrido Journal: Clin Transl Oncol Date: 2016-12-22 Impact factor: 3.405