Do HLA-DR-typing and measurement of TSH-receptor antibodies help in the prediction of the clinical course of Graves' thyrotoxicosis after antithyroid drug treatment?

In patients with Graves' hyperthyroidism, the relapse rate after antithyroid drug treatment is in the range of about 30-70%. Different attempts have been made to obtain criteria for the prediction of the clinical outcome after drug therapy, especially HLA-DR typing and measurement of TSH receptor antibodies. So far, very conflicting results have been reported. This is not surprising in view of the many genetically controlled and environmental factors that play a role in the pathogenesis of this disease. Moreover, most reports are based on retrospective studies with a relatively small number of patients. Our own data, obtained in a prospective multicenter study, yield strong evidence against the relevance of HLA-DR3 typing (n = 187, sensitivity = 0.38, specificity = 0.67) or measurement of TSH receptor antibodies at the end of therapy (n = 269, sensitivity = 0.49, specificity = 0.72) for the prediction of the clinical course after drug treatment.