Population dynamics and kinship of the Chinese rural elderly: A microsimulation study.

This study examines the kinship dynamics of the elderly in rural China using a microsimulation approach. Two major questions this study addresses are: To what extent will the kinship structure of the elderly which forms the demographic capacity of the family support system be affected by the fertility decline in the 1970s in China? and when will these changes in the kinship structure occur? Results of this study show that due to population momentum, the crisis in the family support system for the rural elderly will not occur in the near future, regardless of which path China has taken or will take in its fertility change. However, if fertility in rural China does follow the path as hypothesized in the one-child-per-couple scenario, the strength of the family support system will begin to be weakened from around 2040. This simulation study also reveals that even with the rapid fertility decline in the 1970s, the elderly in the future are likely to have more kin at the horizontal level such as a living spouse and siblings than in the past.