Shazia Shabir1, Jean-Michel Halimi2, Aravind Cherukuri3, Simon Ball1, Charles Ferro1, Graham Lipkin1, David Benavente1, Philippe Gatault2, Richard Baker3, Bryce Kiberd4, Richard Borrows5. 1. Department of Nephrology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom. 2. Service de Néphrologie-Immunologie clinique, CHU Tours, Tours, France. 3. Renal Transplant Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom. 4. Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. 5. Department of Nephrology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Centre for Translational Inflammation Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom. Electronic address: richard.borrows@uhb.nhs.uk.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of kidney transplant failure remains imperfect. The objective of this study was to develop and validate risk scores predicting 5-year transplant failure, based on data available 12 months posttransplantation. STUDY DESIGN: Development and then independent multicenter validation of risk scores predicting death-censored and overall transplant failure. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Outcomes of kidney transplant recipients (n=651) alive with transplant function 12 months posttransplantation in Birmingham, United Kingdom, were used to develop models predicting transplant failure risk 5 years posttransplantation. The resulting risk scores were evaluated for prognostic utility (discrimination, calibration, and risk reclassification) in independent cohorts from Tours, France (n=736); Leeds, United Kingdom (n=787); and Halifax, Canada (n=475). PREDICTORS: Weighted regression coefficients for baseline and 12-month demographic and clinical predictor characteristics. OUTCOMES: Death-censored and overall transplant failure 5 years posttransplantation. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline data and time to transplant failure. RESULTS: Following model development, variables included in separate scores for death-censored and overall transplant failure included recipient age, sex, and race; acute rejection; transplant function; serum albumin level; and proteinuria. In the validation cohorts, these scores showed good to excellent discrimination for death-censored transplant failure (C statistics, 0.78-0.90) and moderate to good discrimination for overall transplant failure (C statistics, 0.75-0.81). Both scores demonstrated good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P>0.05 in all cohorts). Compared with estimated glomerular filtration rate in isolation, application of the scores resulted in statistically significant and clinically relevant risk reclassification for death-censored transplant failure (net reclassification improvement [NRI], 36.1%-83.0%; all P<0.001) and overall transplant failure (NRI, 38.7%-53.5%; all P<0.001). Compared with the previously described US Renal Data System-based risk calculator, significant and relevant risk reclassification for overall transplant failure was seen (NRI, 30.0%; P<0.001). LIMITATIONS: Validation is required in further populations. CONCLUSIONS: These validated risk scores may be of prognostic utility in kidney transplantation, accurately identifying at-risk transplants, and informing clinicians and patients.
BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of kidney transplant failure remains imperfect. The objective of this study was to develop and validate risk scores predicting 5-year transplant failure, based on data available 12 months posttransplantation. STUDY DESIGN: Development and then independent multicenter validation of risk scores predicting death-censored and overall transplant failure. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Outcomes of kidney transplant recipients (n=651) alive with transplant function 12 months posttransplantation in Birmingham, United Kingdom, were used to develop models predicting transplant failure risk 5 years posttransplantation. The resulting risk scores were evaluated for prognostic utility (discrimination, calibration, and risk reclassification) in independent cohorts from Tours, France (n=736); Leeds, United Kingdom (n=787); and Halifax, Canada (n=475). PREDICTORS: Weighted regression coefficients for baseline and 12-month demographic and clinical predictor characteristics. OUTCOMES: Death-censored and overall transplant failure 5 years posttransplantation. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline data and time to transplant failure. RESULTS: Following model development, variables included in separate scores for death-censored and overall transplant failure included recipient age, sex, and race; acute rejection; transplant function; serum albumin level; and proteinuria. In the validation cohorts, these scores showed good to excellent discrimination for death-censored transplant failure (C statistics, 0.78-0.90) and moderate to good discrimination for overall transplant failure (C statistics, 0.75-0.81). Both scores demonstrated good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P>0.05 in all cohorts). Compared with estimated glomerular filtration rate in isolation, application of the scores resulted in statistically significant and clinically relevant risk reclassification for death-censored transplant failure (net reclassification improvement [NRI], 36.1%-83.0%; all P<0.001) and overall transplant failure (NRI, 38.7%-53.5%; all P<0.001). Compared with the previously described US Renal Data System-based risk calculator, significant and relevant risk reclassification for overall transplant failure was seen (NRI, 30.0%; P<0.001). LIMITATIONS: Validation is required in further populations. CONCLUSIONS: These validated risk scores may be of prognostic utility in kidney transplantation, accurately identifying at-risk transplants, and informing clinicians and patients.
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