Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions.

An empirical approach for simulating the infection and progress of leaf rust (caused by Puccinia triticina) during stem elongation on winter wheat was analysed for the 2000 to 2006 growing seasons. The approach was elaborated based on night weather conditions (i.e., air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and leaf rust occurrences. Data from three consecutive cropping seasons (2000-2002) at four representative sites of the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg were used in the set-up phase. The capability to correctly simulate the occurrence expression of P. triticina infections on the upper leaf layers was then assessed over the 2003-2006 period. Our study revealed that the development of leaf rust required a period of at least 12 consecutive hours with air temperatures ranging between 8 and 16 °C, a relative humidity greater than 60 % (optimal values being 12-16 °C and up to 80 % for air temperatures and relative humidity, respectively) and rainfall less than 1 mm. Moreover, leaf rust occurrences and infections were satisfactorily simulated. The false alarm ratio was ranged from 0.06 to 0.20 in all the study sites. The probability of detection and critical success index for WLR infection were also close to 1 (perfect score).