Modelled evaluation of multi-component meningococcal vaccine (Bexsero®) for the prevention of invasive meningococcal disease in infants and adolescents in the UK.

Neisseria meningitidis is the main cause of bacterial meningitis and sepsis in the UK, and can potentially be lethal or cause long-term sequelae. Bexsero® (4CMenB) is a new multi-component vaccine approved by the European Commission for use in individuals aged ⩾2 months. A theoretical transmission model was constructed to assess the long-term effectiveness of Bexsero compared to standard care. The model was populated with UK-specific demographic data and calibrated to ensure that the transmission dynamics of meningococcal disease in the UK were adequately simulated. The model showed the best strategy to be a routine vaccination programme at ages 2, 3, 4, 12 months and 14 years combined with a 5-year catch-up programme in toddlers aged 12-24 months and adolescents aged 15-18 years. This would lead to a 94% reduction in meningococcal cases or 150 000 cases and 15 000 deaths over a 100-year time-frame.