Simulation and equation models of insect population control by pheromone-baited traps.

A spatial-temporal model for personal computers is developed that simulates trapping of an insect population based on trap and population parameters that can be varied independently. The model allows individual "insects" to move forward at any step size with right or left turns within any specified angle taken at random. Thex andy axes of the area within which insects move can be varied as well as the number of insects, their flight speed, and the duration of the control period. In addition, the number of pheromonebaited traps, their placement in a grid or at random (with a variable degree of spacing), and their effective catch radius (proportional to pheromone release rate) can also be varied. Simulations showed that catch was similar regardless of whether traps were placed in a grid or practically at random (random placement but no traps were allowed to overlap in their effective catch radii). Iterative equations were developed for computer that can rapidly obtain values that correspond to the mean results from the slower simulation model. Based on a set of input parameters, the equations determine the percentage of the population that should be caught during a specified time, the time required to catch a specified proportion of the insects, and the number of traps necessary to catch the population proportion in the time period. The effects of varying the number of insects, flight speed, trap radius, and number of traps on the percent control or time to catch all insects are presented. Population control of the bark beetleIps typographus was simulated using realistic pheromone trap and population parameters. A discussion of insect and bark beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) population control using pheromone traps is presented.