Expected early genetic gain from selection for milk yield in dairy cattle.

A matrix program to predict short term genetic gain from single trait selection for milk yield was developed. Rate of genetic gain was calculated as the annual change in the mean breeding value of all producing females. Several parameters sets representing various selection policies were used to examine situations pertinent to dairy populations of the United States. Approach to the asymptotic rates of genetic gain within the model varied with the choice of parameters, but even with consistent selection policies, predicted total genetic gain in the first 10 years was only half of the expected from classical theory. Considerable year to year variation in the rate of gain occurred. Early gains were more dependent on female selection decisions than gains during the steady state. In a two-phase model, the approach to the linear rate of gain in the second phase was accelerated by starting with an ongoing improvement program, but considerable delays still existed. Selection for sex- limited traits such as milk yield, which require pedigree selection and a waiting time for progeny test results reached asymptotic rates more slowly than previously assumed.