Accuracy and selection success in yield trial analyses.

Yield trials serve research purposes of estimation and selection. Order statistics are used here to quantify the successes or problems to be expected in selection tasks commonly encountered in breeding and agronomy. Greater accuracy of yield estimates implies greater selection success. A New York soybean yield trial serves as a specific example. The Additive Main effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) statistical model is used to increase the accuracy of these soybean yield estimates, thereby increasing the probability of successfully selecting, on the basis of the empirical yield data, that genotype which has the maximum true mean. The statistical strategy for increasing accuracy is extremely cost effective relative to the alternative strategy of increasing the number of replications. Better selections increase the speed and effectiveness of breeding programs, and increase the reliability of variety recommendations. Selection tasks are frequently more difficult than may be suspected.