Prediction of the performance of inbred lines derived from a population cross in autumn-sown onions (Allium cepa L.).

A design and model are presented to allow the prediction, in early generations, of the mean and distribution of recombinant inbred lines derived from a cross between two parental populations or partially inbred lines. The procedure has been tested in autumn-sown onions (in the UK) using a wide cross between the openpollinated Japanese cultivar, Senshyu, and a partially inbred line derived from the European cultivar, Rawska. The early generations used for prediction included the first self-pollinated generation of the two parental populations and the F3 generation produced from the hybrid population. The predictions were tested by reference to the field performance of a random array of inbred lines, which were produced by single-seed descent (SSD) and had been selfed for three generations. The early generations, used for prediction, and a sample of SSD lines were raised alongside each other in each of two seasons. Within each season, good agreement was found between the predicted and observed performance of the recombinant inbred lines for three characters - yield, quality and maturity. This is used as evidence of the validity of the genetical model and the assumptions made. The effects of genotype x environment interactions prevented predictions made in one season being reliably applied to those made in the other and, therefore, reduce the attraction of this type of prediction study to the plant breeder.