Estimates of marker-associated QTL effects in Monte Carlo backcross generations using multiple regression.

The decision of whether or not to use QTLassociated markers in breeding programs needs further information about the magnitude of the additive and dominance effects that can be estimated. The objectives of this paper are (1) to apply some of the Moreno-Gonzalez (1993) genetic models to backcross simulation data generated by the Monte Carlo method, and (2) to get simulation information about the number of testing progenies and mapping density in relation to the magnitude of gene effect estimates. Results of the Monte Carlo study show that the stepwise regression analysis was able to detect relatively small additive and dominance effects when the QTL are independently segregating. When testing selfed families derived from backcross individuals, dominance effects had a larger error standard deviation and were estimated at a lower frequency. Linked QTL require a higher marker mapping density on the genome and a larger number of progenies to detect small genetic effects. Reduction of the environmental error variance by evaluating selfed backcross families in replicate experiments increased the power of the test. Expressions of the number of progenies for detecting significant additive effects were developed for some genetic situations. The ratio of the within-backcross genetic variance to the square of a gene effect estimate is a function of the number of progenies, the heritability of the trait, the marker map density and the portion of the genetic variance explained by the model. Different values (from 0 to 1) assigned to ρ (relative position of the QTL in the marker segment) did not cause a large shift in the residual mean square of the model.