Chronic toxicity of Great Lakes sediments to Daphnia magna: elutriate effects on survival, reproduction and population growth.

: Seventeen Great Lakes sediments ranging in degree of expected toxicity were evaluated using a 21 day sediment elutriate bioassay with Daphnia magna. Sediments differed in their effects on survival, age at first reproduction, the number of broods produced and the total number of young produced per adult. Sediments producing low survivorship (50-60%) also had negative effects on reproduction. However, both positive and negative effects on reproduction were found among sediments producing high survivorship. To integrate all test end-points, a stochastic matrix population model was constructed and parameterized with survival and reproduction data from each sediment. By including estimates of variability in vital rates, the model output provided quantitative estimates of uncertainty in projected population size. Sediment effects on survival and reproduction translated into large differences in projected population growth; mean estimates of projected population size at day 28 of the simulations ranged over two orders of magnitude among the 17 sediments. Reproductive timing (e.g. age at first reproduction), followed by fecundity and survivorship, had the largest effect on population growth. Results of this study also indicate that the presence of suspended sediment in elutriates may confound toxicity evaluations using cladocerans. The concentration of total suspended solids was negatively correlated with age at first reproduction and positively correlated with measures of fecundity and population growth. In order to realize the potential benefits of chronic testing we must develop ecologically relevant ways of interpreting sediment bioassay results and expressing the uncertainty associated with our estimates of ecological risk.