The effect of gametic-phase disequilibrium on the prediction of response to recurrent selection in plants.

Selection reduces additive genetic variation by generating gametic-phase disequilibrium, a phenomenon largely ignored when predicting response in plant breeding programs. The development of gametic-phase disequilibrium is here taken into account when predicting the response to selection for various schemes of recurrent selection applicable to plant populations. A general program permits prediction of response to selection from schemes of recurrent selection in which two or more rounds of selection occur in each cycle. An example from Sugar Beet, with alternate rounds of half-sib and S1 family selection, is illustrated. It is shown that failure to take into account the effects of gametic-phase disequilibrium can result in substantial overestimation of the response to selection as well as to changes in rank of the merits of alternative breeding schemes. For a given scheme, ignoring gametic-phase disequilibrium has only small effects on defining the optimum allocation of plots and the numbers of families tested.