Simultaneous estimation of pollen contamination and pollen fertilities of individual trees in conifer seed orchards using multilocus genetic data.

Seed orchards of forest trees are established to produce genetically-improved seed for reforestation. Genetic efficiency requires seed orchards to be (1) reproductively isolated form surrounding trees, (2) that there be similar fertilities among all orchard trees, and (3) minimum inbreeding. Each aspect of seed orchard reproduction can be simultaneously estimated using the observed frequency of each multilocus gametic type contributed through fertilizing pollen and the expected multilocus gametic segregation frequencies of orchard tree and of the contaminating population. These genetic estimates are directly relevant to the genetics of the tree breeding program. The flexibility of sampling seed - the basic data for these techniques - allows great scope for hypothesis testing, including tests of the accuracy of predictions of biophysical models of pollen movement. A simple example and a white spruce seed orchard case study are presented to illustrate the estimation technique and to investigate its sensitivity.