M Ilic1, H Vlajinac, J Marinkovic, Z Blazic. 1. Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To estimate the death rates for lung cancer and their secular trends in the population of Serbia, excluding the autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohia, over the 1991-2009 period. METHODS: A descriptive epidemiological method was employed. Trend of the lung cancer mortality rates was estimated using joinpoint linear regression analysis. An average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was computed for trend using linear models assuming a Poisson distribution, and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The mortality rate from lung cancer in Serbia ranks as the highest in the world, and it has been increasing continuously from 1991 (AAPC = + 1.9; 95% CI=1.7-2.2). A significant increase in mortality was present in both the male population (AAPC = + 1.4; 95% CI=1.2-1.6), and the female population (AAPC = + 3.9; 95% CI=3.6-4.3). However, a significant decline in lung cancer mortality in men was seen in some age groups. In young men (35-39 and 40-44 years age groups), lung cancer death rates decreased continuously from 1991, by - 5.1% and - 2.6% per year, respectively. Among men in the 45-49 years age group, a marked increase of lung cancer mortality was observed from 1991 to 1998 (by + 6.5% per year), followed by significant decrease (- 1.9% per year). Among women, only in the youngest age group (35-39 years) a declining trend was present (- 0.6% per year), yet without significance. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer mortality rates in Serbia indicate the importance of consistent application of measures of primary and secondary prevention that have been proven effective in other countries.
PURPOSE: To estimate the death rates for lung cancer and their secular trends in the population of Serbia, excluding the autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohia, over the 1991-2009 period. METHODS: A descriptive epidemiological method was employed. Trend of the lung cancer mortality rates was estimated using joinpoint linear regression analysis. An average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was computed for trend using linear models assuming a Poisson distribution, and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The mortality rate from lung cancer in Serbia ranks as the highest in the world, and it has been increasing continuously from 1991 (AAPC = + 1.9; 95% CI=1.7-2.2). A significant increase in mortality was present in both the male population (AAPC = + 1.4; 95% CI=1.2-1.6), and the female population (AAPC = + 3.9; 95% CI=3.6-4.3). However, a significant decline in lung cancer mortality in men was seen in some age groups. In young men (35-39 and 40-44 years age groups), lung cancer death rates decreased continuously from 1991, by - 5.1% and - 2.6% per year, respectively. Among men in the 45-49 years age group, a marked increase of lung cancer mortality was observed from 1991 to 1998 (by + 6.5% per year), followed by significant decrease (- 1.9% per year). Among women, only in the youngest age group (35-39 years) a declining trend was present (- 0.6% per year), yet without significance. CONCLUSION:Lung cancer mortality rates in Serbia indicate the importance of consistent application of measures of primary and secondary prevention that have been proven effective in other countries.