Management of patients with symptomatic gallstones: a quantitative analysis.

Should persons with symptomatic gallstones (i.e., those that have caused biliary pain) be treated immediately? Or may they be managed expectantly until pain recurs or a biliary complication (i.e., acute cholecystitis or pancreatitis) occurs? To assess the mortality risk of different strategies, we performed a quantitative analysis. For the expectant management strategy that requires surgery only if a biliary complication occurs, the cumulative lifetime probability of gallstone disease death in a 30-year-old man is about 2%, and most deaths occur after age 65. In comparison, elective cholecystectomy has only a 0.1% rate of gallstone disease death, but all deaths occur at age 30. The average amount of life expectancy gained by immediate cholecystectomy compared with expectant management is 52 days, which is reduced to 23 days using 5% discounting. This gain could be increased only slightly by a 100% effective and risk-free therapy such as perfected lithotripsy or medical dissolution. Results are similar for women. The results suggest that, for persons with symptomatic gallstones, the life expectancy gain of immediate cholecystectomy is relatively small and that the potential incremental gain of nonsurgical therapy is also small. For patients and physicians who believe that life expectancy is of primary consideration, the decision about therapy may be made primarily on non-mortality considerations. Some patients and physicians may decide that the risk of symptomatic gallstones is low enough that a policy of expectant management may be acceptable.