Directional data analysis under the general projected normal distribution.

The projected normal distribution is an under-utilized model for explaining directional data. In particular, the general version provides flexibility, e.g., asymmetry and possible bimodality along with convenient regression specification. Here, we clarify the properties of this general class. We also develop fully Bayesian hierarchical models for analyzing circular data using this class. We show how they can be fit using MCMC methods with suitable latent variables. We show how posterior inference for distributional features such as the angular mean direction and concentration can be implemented as well as how prediction within the regression setting can be handled. With regard to model comparison, we argue for an out-of-sample approach using both a predictive likelihood scoring loss criterion and a cumulative rank probability score criterion.