Patient-specific prediction of ESRD after liver transplantation.

Incident ESRD after liver transplantation (LT) is associated with high post-transplant mortality. We constructed and validated a continuous renal risk index (RRI) to predict post-LT ESRD. Data for 43,514 adult recipients of deceased donor LT alone (February 28, 2002 to December 31, 2010) were linked from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services ESRD Program. An adjusted Cox regression model of time to post-LT ESRD was fitted, and the resulting equation was used to calculate an RRI for each LT recipient. The RRI included 14 recipient factors: age, African-American race, hepatitis C, cholestatic disease, body mass index ≥ 35, pre-LT diabetes, ln creatinine for recipients not on dialysis, ln albumin, ln bilirubin, serum sodium<134 mEq/L, status-1, previous LT, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and acute dialysis at LT. This RRI was validated and had a C statistic of 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 0.78). Higher RRI associated significantly with higher 5-year cumulative incidence of ESRD and post-transplant mortality. In conclusion, the RRI constructed in this study quantifies the risk of post-LT ESRD and is applicable to all LT alone recipients. This new validated measure may serve as an important prognostic tool in ameliorating post-LT ESRD risk and improve survival by informing post-LT patient management strategies.