[Regional differences and development tendency of livestock manure pollution in China].

The rapid development of livestock production in China has brought livestock manure pollution as a serious environment problem, even threatens China's agriculture sustainable development. On the basis of public statistical data and field research data, this paper analyzed the magnitude of livestock manure excretion and pollution of China and different provinces in 2010, and predicted development tendencies of livestock manure excretion and pollution in 2020 through the Decision Support System for China's Agricultural Sustainable Development (CHINAGRO). The result shows that total livestock manure excretion of China in 2010 is 1 900 million tons, and livestock manure pollution is 227 million tons, while per hectare arable land of livestock manure pollution is 1.86 tons. Provinces in the southeast China, such as Guangdong and Fujian, are areas with high pressure of livestock manure pollution. Model simulation shows that China's total amount of livestock manure pollution will increase to 298 million tons in 2020 without government intervention. The pressure of livestock manure pollution will become higher in most regions of China, especially in east and south regions. The situation in central and western region is better than that in east regions although the pollution pressure will also increase in those areas. Policy intervention such as taxes and subsidies should be adopted to reduce the discharge of livestock manure pollution, and encourage livestock production transfer from eastern areas to the central and western regions.