Incremental prognostic value of cardiac computed tomography angiography in asymptomatic aortic stenosis: significance of aortic valve calcium score.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac computed tomography angiography (CCTA) provides the simultaneous evaluation of the aortic valve, myocardium, and coronary arteries. In particular, aortic valve calcium score (AVCS) can be accurately measured on the same scanning sequence used to measure coronary artery calcification, with no additional cost or radiation exposure. We sought to evaluate the prognostic value of CCTA measures, including AVCS, in asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS). METHODS AND
RESULTS: Sixty-four initially asymptomatic patients with AS with a normal ejection fraction were prospectively enrolled and followed for median 29 (IQR=18-50) months. During follow-up, 27 (42%) patients experienced cardiac events, including five cardiac deaths, eleven aortic valve replacements. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis identified three CCTA measures as significant predictors of cardiac events: aortic valve area (per 0.1cm(2) decrease; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.34); multi-vessel obstructive coronary artery disease (HR: 2.84, 95% CI: 1.10-7.32); and AVCS (per 100; HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.15). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with AVCS greater than or equal to the median value of 723 had significantly worse outcomes than those with AVCS less than 723 (p<0.0001). The C-statistic value for cardiac events substantially increased when these CCTA measures were added to clinical characteristics plus echocardiographic peak transaortic velocity (0.913 vs. 0.702, p<0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: In patients with asymptomatic AS, CCTA measures of valve area, coronary stenosis, and calcification severity provide independent and incremental prognostic value after accounting for the echocardiographic severity of stenosis.