Horst Christian Vollmar1, Kerstin Goluchowicz2, Bernd Beckert3, Ewa Dönitz3, Sabine Bartholomeyczik4, Thomas Ostermann5, Malaz Boustani6, Ines Buscher7. 1. DZNE - German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Witten, Germany; Department of General Practice, Faculty of Medicine, Heinrich-Heine-University, Düsseldorf, Germany. Electronic address: horst.vollmar@med.uni-duesseldorf.de. 2. Chair of Innovation Economics, Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin), Berlin, Germany. 3. Fraunhofer Institute for System- and Innovation Transfer (ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany. 4. DZNE - German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Witten, Germany; School of Nursing Science, Faculty of Health, Witten/Herdecke University, Witten, Germany. 5. Center for integrative Medicine, Faculty of Health, Witten/Herdecke University, Herdecke, Germany. 6. Indiana University Center for Aging Research, Indianapolis, IN, United States; Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, United States. 7. DZNE - German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Witten, Germany.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite extensive research funding in the field of dementia, deficits in the quality of dementia care still exist. In order to project different alternative futures of health care for people with dementia (PwD) in Germany, we have initiated a multidisciplinary scenario process (Sce-Dem). METHODS: For the scenario process we used a 6-step approach: (1) identification of relevant areas of influences via literature review and internet search, (2) systematic collection of relevant influence factors and their future projections via literature review, brainstorming and consensus workshops, (3) discussion and validation of the identified key factors in a workshop with 52 multidisciplinary, experts, to clarify their characteristics and future projections, (4) combining the relevant key factors with alternative projections in a so-called consistency matrix to estimate the consistency between the selected projections, (5) generating consistent combinations of projections using software, and (6) writing scenario stories and descriptions based on the most consistent and different combinations. RESULTS: As a result of the scenario process, five consistent scenarios were developed. Two of these could be described as dark scenarios with very poor prospects. A third one has been referred to as "well-meant, but badly done". Two scenarios entail mostly positive aspects but one of them has a tendency towards, a "health control" state. CONCLUSION: The more positive scenarios provide a framework for determining relevant actions in research, society, and politics.
BACKGROUND: Despite extensive research funding in the field of dementia, deficits in the quality of dementia care still exist. In order to project different alternative futures of health care for people with dementia (PwD) in Germany, we have initiated a multidisciplinary scenario process (Sce-Dem). METHODS: For the scenario process we used a 6-step approach: (1) identification of relevant areas of influences via literature review and internet search, (2) systematic collection of relevant influence factors and their future projections via literature review, brainstorming and consensus workshops, (3) discussion and validation of the identified key factors in a workshop with 52 multidisciplinary, experts, to clarify their characteristics and future projections, (4) combining the relevant key factors with alternative projections in a so-called consistency matrix to estimate the consistency between the selected projections, (5) generating consistent combinations of projections using software, and (6) writing scenario stories and descriptions based on the most consistent and different combinations. RESULTS: As a result of the scenario process, five consistent scenarios were developed. Two of these could be described as dark scenarios with very poor prospects. A third one has been referred to as "well-meant, but badly done". Two scenarios entail mostly positive aspects but one of them has a tendency towards, a "health control" state. CONCLUSION: The more positive scenarios provide a framework for determining relevant actions in research, society, and politics.
Authors: H C Vollmar; J R Thyrian; M A LaMantia; C A Alder; M M Guerriero Austrom; C Callahan; V Leve; W Hoffmann; M Boustani Journal: Z Gerontol Geriatr Date: 2015-05-27 Impact factor: 1.281
Authors: Michela Franchini; Massimiliano Salvatori; Francesca Denoth; Sabrina Molinaro; Stefania Pieroni Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-06-25 Impact factor: 4.614