Alexander Fisher1, Jodie Martin2, Wichat Srikusalanukul3, Michael Davis4. 1. Department of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, Canberra, Australia; Australian National University Medical School, Canberra, Australia. Electronic address: alex.fisher@act.gov.au. 2. Australian National University Medical School, Canberra, Australia. 3. Department of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, Canberra, Australia. 4. Department of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, Canberra, Australia; Australian National University Medical School, Canberra, Australia.
Abstract
AIMS: The objective of this study is (i) to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of stroke survivors aged 60 years and older over a 11-year period in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and (ii) to forecast future trends in Australia until 2051. METHODS: Analysis of age- and sex-specific standardized incidence rates of older first-ever stroke survivors in ACT from 1999-2000 to 2009-2010 and projections of number of stroke survivors (NSS) in 2021 and 2051 using 2 models based only on (i) demographic changes and (ii) assuming changing of both incidence rates and demography. RESULTS: In the ACT in the first decade of the 21st century, the absolute numbers and age-adjusted standardized incidence rates of stroke survivors (measured as a function of age and period) increased among both men and women aged 60 years or older. The trend toward increased survival rates in both sexes was driven mainly by population aging, whereas the effect of stroke year was more pronounced in men compared with women. The absolute NSS (and the financial burden to the society) in Australia is predicted to increase by 35.5%-59.3% in 2021 compared with 2011 and by 1.6- to 4.6-fold in 2051 if current only demographic (first number) or both demographic and incidence trends (second number) continue. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates favorable trends in stroke survivor rates in Australia in the first decade of the new millennium and projects in the foreseeable future significant increases in the absolute numbers of older stroke survivors, especially among those aged 70 years or older and men.
AIMS: The objective of this study is (i) to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of stroke survivors aged 60 years and older over a 11-year period in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and (ii) to forecast future trends in Australia until 2051. METHODS: Analysis of age- and sex-specific standardized incidence rates of older first-ever stroke survivors in ACT from 1999-2000 to 2009-2010 and projections of number of stroke survivors (NSS) in 2021 and 2051 using 2 models based only on (i) demographic changes and (ii) assuming changing of both incidence rates and demography. RESULTS: In the ACT in the first decade of the 21st century, the absolute numbers and age-adjusted standardized incidence rates of stroke survivors (measured as a function of age and period) increased among both men and women aged 60 years or older. The trend toward increased survival rates in both sexes was driven mainly by population aging, whereas the effect of stroke year was more pronounced in men compared with women. The absolute NSS (and the financial burden to the society) in Australia is predicted to increase by 35.5%-59.3% in 2021 compared with 2011 and by 1.6- to 4.6-fold in 2051 if current only demographic (first number) or both demographic and incidence trends (second number) continue. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates favorable trends in stroke survivor rates in Australia in the first decade of the new millennium and projects in the foreseeable future significant increases in the absolute numbers of older stroke survivors, especially among those aged 70 years or older and men.
Authors: Lynsey M Keator; Alexandra Basilakos; Christopher Rorden; Jordan Elm; Leonardo Bonilha; Julius Fridriksson Journal: Am J Speech Lang Pathol Date: 2020-05-20 Impact factor: 2.408
Authors: Valery L Feigin; Rita V Krishnamurthi; Suzanne Barker-Collo; Kathryn M McPherson; P Alan Barber; Varsha Parag; Bruce Arroll; Derrick A Bennett; Martin Tobias; Amy Jones; Emma Witt; Paul Brown; Max Abbott; Rohit Bhattacharjee; Elaine Rush; Flora Minsun Suh; Alice Theadom; Yogini Rathnasabapathy; Braden Te Ao; Priya G Parmar; Craig Anderson; Ruth Bonita Journal: PLoS One Date: 2015-08-20 Impact factor: 3.240