BACKGROUND: In the past, upward shifts of the so-called Preston curve, which relates life expectancy to national income, have contributed importantly to worldwide increases in life expectancy. These shifts were due to rapid diffusion of knowledge and technology for infectious disease control from high-income to low-income countries. We assessed to what extent life expectancy growth in Europe has been accompanied by upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy in later parts of the 20th century, when progress in cardiovascular disease control was the main driver of life expectancy growth. METHODS: Data on national income (gross domestic product per capita, in 1990 international dollars), life expectancy and cause-specific mortality covering the period 1900-2008 were extracted from international data banks. (Change in) life expectancy and age-standardized mortality was regressed on (change in) national income, and the regression parameters were used to estimate the contribution to rising life expectancy and declining mortality in Europe as a whole of changes in national income vs shifts in the relation between national income and health outcomes. RESULTS: Large upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy only occurred before 1960, and were due to rapid declines in mortality from infectious diseases which were independent of rises in national income. These shifts account for between two-thirds and four-fifths of the increase in life expectancy in Europe as a whole during this period. After 1960, upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy were much smaller, and contributed only between one-quarter and one-half to the increase in life expectancy in Europe as a whole. During the latter period, declines in mortality from cardiovascular disease were mainly attributable to increases in national income. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to earlier periods, recent life expectancy growth in European countries appears to have been dependent on their economic growth. More rapid diffusion of knowledge and technology for cardiovascular disease control from higher- to lower-income countries in Europe may be needed to close the East-West life expectancy gap, but it is unlikely that this can be achieved in the absence of more equal economic conditions.
BACKGROUND: In the past, upward shifts of the so-called Preston curve, which relates life expectancy to national income, have contributed importantly to worldwide increases in life expectancy. These shifts were due to rapid diffusion of knowledge and technology for infectious disease control from high-income to low-income countries. We assessed to what extent life expectancy growth in Europe has been accompanied by upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy in later parts of the 20th century, when progress in cardiovascular disease control was the main driver of life expectancy growth. METHODS: Data on national income (gross domestic product per capita, in 1990 international dollars), life expectancy and cause-specific mortality covering the period 1900-2008 were extracted from international data banks. (Change in) life expectancy and age-standardized mortality was regressed on (change in) national income, and the regression parameters were used to estimate the contribution to rising life expectancy and declining mortality in Europe as a whole of changes in national income vs shifts in the relation between national income and health outcomes. RESULTS: Large upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy only occurred before 1960, and were due to rapid declines in mortality from infectious diseases which were independent of rises in national income. These shifts account for between two-thirds and four-fifths of the increase in life expectancy in Europe as a whole during this period. After 1960, upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy were much smaller, and contributed only between one-quarter and one-half to the increase in life expectancy in Europe as a whole. During the latter period, declines in mortality from cardiovascular disease were mainly attributable to increases in national income. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to earlier periods, recent life expectancy growth in European countries appears to have been dependent on their economic growth. More rapid diffusion of knowledge and technology for cardiovascular disease control from higher- to lower-income countries in Europe may be needed to close the East-West life expectancy gap, but it is unlikely that this can be achieved in the absence of more equal economic conditions.
Entities:
Keywords:
Europe; Life expectancy; cardiovascular disease; infectious disease; national income
Authors: Christopher J L Murray; Ryan M Barber; Kyle J Foreman; Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren; Foad Abd-Allah; Semaw F Abera; Victor Aboyans; Jerry P Abraham; Ibrahim Abubakar; Laith J Abu-Raddad; Niveen M Abu-Rmeileh; Tom Achoki; Ilana N Ackerman; Zanfina Ademi; Arsène K Adou; José C Adsuar; Ashkan Afshin; Emilie E Agardh; Sayed Saidul Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Mohammed I Albittar; Miguel A Alegretti; Zewdie A Alemu; Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho; Samia Alhabib; Raghib Ali; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Mohammad A Almazroa; Ubai Alsharif; Elena Alvarez; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T Amare; Emmanuel A Ameh; Heresh Amini; Walid Ammar; H Ross Anderson; Benjamin O Anderson; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Johan Arnlöv; Valentina S Arsic Arsenijevic; Al Artaman; Rana J Asghar; Reza Assadi; Lydia S Atkins; Marco A Avila; Baffour Awuah; Victoria F Bachman; Alaa Badawi; Maria C Bahit; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Amitava Banerjee; Suzanne L Barker-Collo; Simon Barquera; Lars Barregard; Lope H Barrero; Arindam Basu; Sanjay Basu; Mohammed O Basulaiman; Justin Beardsley; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Tolesa Bekele; Michelle L Bell; Corina Benjet; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Habib Benzian; Eduardo Bernabé; Amelia Bertozzi-Villa; Tariku J Beyene; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Kelly Bienhoff; Boris Bikbov; Stan Biryukov; Jed D Blore; Christopher D Blosser; Fiona M Blyth; Megan A Bohensky; Ian W Bolliger; Berrak Bora Başara; Natan M Bornstein; Dipan Bose; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert R A Bourne; Lindsay N Boyers; Michael Brainin; Carol E Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Adam D Briggs; Peter M Brooks; Jonathan C Brown; Traolach S Brugha; Rachelle Buchbinder; Geoffrey C Buckle; Christine M Budke; Anne Bulchis; Andrew G Bulloch; Ismael R Campos-Nonato; Hélène Carabin; Jonathan R Carapetis; Rosario Cárdenas; David O Carpenter; Valeria Caso; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Ruben E Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Fiorella Cavalleri; Alanur Çavlin; 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