Literature DB >> 23896284

Modeling the regional spread and control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci.

Bruce Y Lee1, S Levent Yilmaz, Kim F Wong, Sarah M Bartsch, Stephen Eubank, Yeohan Song, Taliser R Avery, Richard Christie, Shawn T Brown, Joshua M Epstein, Jon I Parker, Susan S Huang.   

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Because patients can remain colonized with vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) for long periods of time, VRE may spread from one health care facility to another.
METHODS: Using the Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst, an agent-based model of patient flow among all Orange County, California, hospitals and communities, we quantified the degree and speed at which changes in VRE colonization prevalence in a hospital may affect prevalence in other Orange County hospitals.
RESULTS: A sustained 10% increase in VRE colonization prevalence in any 1 hospital caused a 2.8% (none to 62%) average relative increase in VRE prevalence in all other hospitals. Effects took from 1.5 to >10 years to fully manifest. Larger hospitals tended to have greater affect on other hospitals.
CONCLUSIONS: When monitoring and controlling VRE, decision makers may want to account for regional effects. Knowing a hospital's connections with other health care facilities via patient sharing can help determine which hospitals to include in a surveillance or control program.
Copyright © 2013 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Entities:  

Keywords:  Health care-associated infections; Hospitals; Modeling; Simulation; Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus

Mesh:

Substances:

Year:  2013        PMID: 23896284      PMCID: PMC3836830          DOI: 10.1016/j.ajic.2013.01.013

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Am J Infect Control        ISSN: 0196-6553            Impact factor:   2.918


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