[Demographic change, people needing long-term care, and the future need for carers. An overview].

Both the number of people in need of long-term care and the number of carers will grow strongly in the future. This development is influenced by several factors. Firstly, demographic change will increase the number of people in need of long-term care. This article analyzes how demographic change is shifting the balance of age groups that need long-term care using the"greying index" and parent-support ratio. Secondly, changes in the health status of the elderly modify the need for long-term care. A decrease in morbidity could reduce the future need for long-term care. Thirdly, two thirds of all people in need of long-term care are cared for at home today, for the most part by their relatives exclusively. The demographic potential for family care will not increase in future. Thus, it can be assumed that a greater part of long-term care will be relocated to institutions and that this will increase the demand for professional carers. A synopsis of diverse projections reveals that in future, the number of carers required for long-term care will be much higher than that of today.