| Literature DB >> 23879739 |
Kayoko Haga1, Kunichika Matsumoto, Takefumi Kitazawa, Kanako Seto, Shigeru Fujita, Tomonori Hasegawa.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Stomach cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths in Japan. The objectives of this study were to estimate and project the economic burden associated with stomach cancer in Japan, and to identify the key factors that drive the economic burden of stomach cancer.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2013 PMID: 23879739 PMCID: PMC3734213 DOI: 10.1186/1472-6963-13-283
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Health Serv Res ISSN: 1472-6963 Impact factor: 2.655
The elements used for calculation in future prediction of Cost of illness (COI)
| Fixed model | Number of deaths | Mortality rate | Fixed |
| The population estimates | Varied | ||
| Direct cost | The expenses of outpatient visit and hospitalization | Fixed (Calculated using the unit cost in 2008) | |
| Total person-days of outpatient visit | Varied | ||
| Total person-days of hospitalization | Varied | ||
| Morbidity cost | Number of times of outpatient visit per population | Fixed | |
| Number of times of hospitalization per population | Fixed | ||
| Average length of stay | Fixed | ||
| The population estimates | varied | ||
| Labor-value | Fixed (one day labor-value loss for one hospitalized day and a half day labor-value loss for one outpatient visit) | ||
| Mortality cost | Number of deaths | Varied | |
| Life expectancy | Fixed | ||
| Labor-value | Fixed | ||
| Discount rate: 3% | Fixed | ||
| Variable model | Number of deaths | Mortality rate | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula) |
| The population estimates | Varied | ||
| Direct cost | The expenses of outpatient visit and hospitalization | Fixed (Calculated using the unit cost in 2008) | |
| Total person-days of outpatient visit | Varied | ||
| Total person-days of hospitalization | Varied | ||
| Morbidity cost | Number of times of outpatient visit per population | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: the previous value before 0) | |
| Number of times of hospitalization per population | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: the previous value before 0) | ||
| Average length of stay | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: 8.2days) | ||
| The population estimates | Varied | ||
| Labor-value | Fixed (one day labor-value loss for one hospitalized day and a half day labor-value loss for one outpatient visit) | ||
| Mortality cost | Number of deaths | Varied | |
| Life expectancy | Fixed | ||
| Labor-value | Fixed | ||
| Discount rate: 3% | Fixed |
Fixed: The value of 2008 was used. Varied: The values of 2014 and 2020 were calculated based on the trend line.
The time trend of Cost of illness (COI) of stomach cancer
| Population (thousand person) | | 125,865 | 127,433 | 127,690 |
| [% of 65 years or older] | | 15.1% | 18.5% | 22.1% |
| Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) | | 50,161 | 49,211 | 50,156 |
| [% of 65 years or older] | | 70.1% | 76.2% | 80.7% |
| Average age of death (year) | | 70.2 | 72.2 | 74.4 |
| Crude morbidity rate (per 100 thousand) | male | 109.3 | 115.1 | NA |
| female | 52.5 | 53.9 | NA | |
| Crude mortality rate (per 100 thousand) | male | 53.0 | 51.6 | 53.7 |
| female | 28.0 | 27.1 | 26.6 | |
| Fatality rate | male | 0.48 | 0.45 | NA |
| female | 0.53 | 0.50 | NA | |
| Direct cost (billion yen) | | 235.5 | 251.9 | 253.7 |
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | | 85.6 | 63.8 | 54.0 |
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | | 972.3 | 918.7 | 806.4 |
| [% of 65 years or older] | | 24.9% | 37.7% | 42.0% |
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | | 19.4 | 18.7 | 16.1 |
| COI (billion yen) | 1,293.5 | 1,234.4 | 1,114.2 |
Source of population:Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Population Estimates”.
Source of the number of stomach cancer deaths: “Vital Statistics”.
Average age of death: Calculated according to the number of deaths, sex and age (5 years old age-grade), cause of death in “Vital Statistics”.
Source of crude morbidity rate and crude mortality rate:Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, Japan.
Fatality rate:We calculated by dividing the crude mortality rate by crude morbidity rate.
NA: not available
Future prediction of Cost of illness (COI)
| | Estimated population (thousand person) | 127,690 | 125,862 | 122,735 | |
| [% of 65 years or older] | 22.1% | 26.2% | 29.2% | ||
| Fixed model | Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) | 50,156 | 58,784 | 66,164 | |
| [% of 65 years or older] | 80.7% | 84.7% | 87.2% | ||
| Average age of death (year) | 74.1 | 75.5 | 76.6 | ||
| Direct cost (billion yen) | 253.7 | 288.0 | 315.3 | ||
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 54.0 | 56.1 | 57.3 | ||
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | 806.4 | 833.4 | 851.7 | ||
| [% of 65 years or older] | 42.0% | 47.3% | 50.0% | ||
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 16.1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | ||
| COI (billion yen) | 1,114.2 | 1,177.4 | 1,224.3 | ||
| Variable model | Logarithm model | Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) | 50,156 | 58,554 | 62,868 |
| [% of 65 years or older] | 80.7% | 84.9% | 87.7% | ||
| Average age of death (year) | 74.1 | 75.6 | 76.9 | ||
| Direct cost (billion yen) | 253.7 | 243.8 | 227.9 | ||
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 54.0 | 49.3 | 42.4 | ||
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | 806.4 | 824.4 | 785.8 | ||
| [% of 65 years or older] | 42.0% | 47.5% | 51.0% | ||
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 16.1 | 14.1 | 12.5 | ||
| COI (billion yen) | 1,114.2 | 1,117.5 | 1,056.1 | ||
| Linear model | Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) | 50,156 | 45,021 | 37,581 | |
| [% of 65 years or older] | 80.7% | 87.1% | 91.8% | ||
| Average age of death (year) | 74.1 | 76.7 | 79.1 | ||
| Direct cost (billion yen) | 253.7 | 162.3 | 67.3 | ||
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 54.0 | 31.0 | 17.7 | ||
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | 806.4 | 557.0 | 357.7 | ||
| [% of 65 years or older] | 42.0% | 52.5% | 60.7% | ||
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 16.1 | 12.4 | 9.5 | ||
| COI (billion yen) | 1,114.2 | 750.3 | 442.8 | ||
| Mixed model | Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) | 50,156 | 45,021 | 37,581 | |
| [% of 65 years or older] | 80.7% | 87.1% | 91.8% | ||
| Average age of death (year) | 74.1 | 76.7 | 79.1 | ||
| Direct cost (billion yen) | 253.7 | 187.1 | 100.4 | ||
| Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 54.0 | 37.1 | 26.4 | ||
| Mortality cost (billion yen) | 806.4 | 557.0 | 357.7 | ||
| [% of 65 years or older] | 42.0% | 52.5% | 60.7% | ||
| Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 16.1 | 12.4 | 9.5 | ||
| COI (billion yen) | 1,114.2 | 781.2 | 484.5 | ||
Source of estimated population:2008;Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Population Estimates” 2014•2020;National Institute of Population and Social Security Research “Population Statistics of Japan”.
Figure 1The time trends of Cost of illness (COI) by prediction models.
Figure 2Cost of illness (COI) projection with cost element.