An individualized weight-based goal urine volume model significantly improves expected calcium concentrations relative to a 2-L goal urine volume.

Increased urinary volume decreases recurrence rates of nephrolithiasis. Current recommendations for goal volumes are not adjusted to reflect individual risk factors, such as obesity. Our intent was to develop and evaluate a goal urine volume for stone prevention based on predictive calcium modeling. Stone formers with a 24-h urine study (6/2001-9/2010) were identified. Patients with inadequate collections or non-calcium stones were excluded. Multivariate and univariate predictive models for daily calcium were evaluated and a univariate (weight) model was selected. A target calcium concentration constant (2.5 mM) was determined from current recommendations. Individualized weight-based goal urine volumes (WGUV) were calculated. Measured calcium concentration and expected calcium concentrations using a 2-L goal volume and WGUV were compared. 185 of 399 patients met inclusion criteria. Body weight was a strong predictor of calcium excretion in each model (p < 0.0001). While a 2-L goal urine volume would be expected to improve mean calcium concentrations for the cohort from 3.53 to 2.96 mM, the benefit is unequal between subsets with nearly twofold expected concentration for the highest weight quartile (3.98 vs. 2.10 mM) and higher expected concentration for males (3.35 vs. 2.59 mM). By contrast, a WGUV model improves expected concentrations for all subsets to <2.9 mM and the overall cohort to 2.50 mM. This study demonstrates a strong relationship between body weight and urinary calcium excretion in stone formers. We introduce the novel concept of individualized goal urine output using statistical modeling, which may be preferable to current recommendations.