Evaluation and development of a real-time predictive model for ultrasound investigation of malignant thyroid nodules.

Ultrasound investigations and correct identification of malignant thyroid nodules depend on the experience and qualifications of the investigators; thus, a model that provides better evaluation before needle aspiration is desired. Data from 687 patients with 726 thyroid nodules comprising 65 malignant nodules (61 papillary and 4 follicular carcinoma) and 661 benign nodules were used to construct a predictive model. Presence of micro-calcification, taller-than-wide shape, predominant solid echostructure, and irregular margins were shown to be good independent predictive parameters. A thyroid nodule was predicted as malignant with a score ≥3.3. Internal validation of this predictive tool by the bootstrapping method showed excellent overall model performance.