Projecting and Monitoring the Life Course of the Marijuana/Blunts Generation.

Since the 1990s, marijuana has been the drug of choice among American youths, especially those that tend to sustain arrests. Previous birth cohorts had greater use of crack, powder cocaine, or heroin. This paper summarizes prior research that strongly suggests drug eras tend to follow a regular course. These insights then serve as the basis for projecting trends in marijuana use both for the general population nationwide and for Manhattan arrestees. To the extent that current trends persist, the prospects for the "Marijuana/Blunts Generation" (born 1970 and later) may be relatively good. These young persons may successfully avoid "hard drugs" as well as the attendant health, social, and legal problems for their entire life, but they may experience higher levels of smoking-related ailments. The conclusion presents issues for continued drug surveillance and ethnographic research to more accurately understand the Marijuana/Blunts Era and to provide an indicator of future changes as they occur.