Predictive modelling of adult emergence in a polyphagous Eucolaspis (Chrysomelidae: Eumolpinae) leaf beetle.

Eucolaspis sp. "Hawke's Bay" (Chrysomelidae: Eumolpinae) is a pest that inflicts huge economic loss in many organic apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) orchards in New Zealand. The timing of control methods for this pest has been shown to be crucial for success. To aid in planning control programs, we studied threshold temperature and degree-days required for the development of Eucolaspis sp. "Hawke's Bay" pupae and modeled adult emergence in the field. Pupal development was observed at three constant temperatures. Pupae required 237.0 +/- 21.67 degree-days above lower threshold temperature of 4.7 degrees C +/- 0.89 degrees C to develop into adults. The emergence of adults was modeled with these thermal values and the model was tested for accuracy with field data. The model performed well with a precision of +/- 4 d. The proposed phenology model has wide applicability in monitoring and planning pest control measures.