Richard H Steckel1. 1. Economics, Anthropology and History Departments, Ohio State University, 1945 N. High St., Columbus, OH 43210, USA. Steckel.1@osu.edu
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The paper tests the thrifty phenotype hypothesis, according to which nonharmonious growth trajectories are costly for adult health. METHODS: The American surge in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes is concentrated in the South, a region characterized by a long history of poverty followed by rapid economic growth beginning in the 1960s. Civil rights legislation further accelerated income growth for African-Americans in the region. The paper investigates the hypothesis by using per capita income at the state level as a proxy for net nutritional conditions. RESULTS: Regressions at the state level explain 56% of the variation in the prevalence rate of type 2 diabetes in 2009 using two explanatory variables: the ratio of per capita income in 1980 to that in 1950 and the share of the population that was African-American. The paper discusses ways that rapid economic growth may have translated into weight gain and type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: If the thrifty phenotype hypothesis is correct, future rates in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes are predictable based on income history. The forecast for rapidly developing countries such as India and China are ominous.
OBJECTIVES: The paper tests the thrifty phenotype hypothesis, according to which nonharmonious growth trajectories are costly for adult health. METHODS: The American surge in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes is concentrated in the South, a region characterized by a long history of poverty followed by rapid economic growth beginning in the 1960s. Civil rights legislation further accelerated income growth for African-Americans in the region. The paper investigates the hypothesis by using per capita income at the state level as a proxy for net nutritional conditions. RESULTS: Regressions at the state level explain 56% of the variation in the prevalence rate of type 2 diabetes in 2009 using two explanatory variables: the ratio of per capita income in 1980 to that in 1950 and the share of the population that was African-American. The paper discusses ways that rapid economic growth may have translated into weight gain and type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: If the thrifty phenotype hypothesis is correct, future rates in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes are predictable based on income history. The forecast for rapidly developing countries such as India and China are ominous.