OBJECTIVE: Previous studies indicated that pyridinoline, a collagen crosslink in cartilage and bone, might be a good marker to predict joint destruction in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), although large prospective studies are lacking. We evaluated the predictive value of serum pyridinoline levels for joint destruction, both at baseline for longterm prediction and during the disease course for near-term prediction. METHODS: Patients with early RA from the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic were studied. Radiographs at baseline and yearly during 7 years of followup were scored according to the Sharp-van der Heijde Scoring (SHS) method. Pyridinoline serum levels at baseline and during followup were measured by ELISA. The association between baseline pyridinoline levels and difference in SHS over 7 years was tested, with a multivariate normal regression model. Second, the association between pyridinoline levels determined during the disease course and progression of SHS over the next year was tested with a multivariable linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Studying baseline pyridinoline serum levels in 437 patients revealed that the mean SHS over 7 years was 6% higher for every higher pyridinoline level (nmol/l) at baseline (p = 0.001). Subsequently, during followup (n = 184 patients) the progression in SHS in the upcoming year was 17% higher for every higher nmol/l pyridinoline level (p = 0.001). The area under the receiver-operation characteristic curve for rapid radiological progression was 0.59. CONCLUSION: Increased pyridinoline serum levels, both at baseline and during the disease course, are associated with more severe joint destruction during the coming year(s), although the predictive accuracy as a sole predictor was moderate.
OBJECTIVE: Previous studies indicated that pyridinoline, a collagen crosslink in cartilage and bone, might be a good marker to predict joint destruction in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), although large prospective studies are lacking. We evaluated the predictive value of serum pyridinoline levels for joint destruction, both at baseline for longterm prediction and during the disease course for near-term prediction. METHODS:Patients with early RA from the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic were studied. Radiographs at baseline and yearly during 7 years of followup were scored according to the Sharp-van der Heijde Scoring (SHS) method. Pyridinoline serum levels at baseline and during followup were measured by ELISA. The association between baseline pyridinoline levels and difference in SHS over 7 years was tested, with a multivariate normal regression model. Second, the association between pyridinoline levels determined during the disease course and progression of SHS over the next year was tested with a multivariable linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Studying baseline pyridinoline serum levels in 437 patients revealed that the mean SHS over 7 years was 6% higher for every higher pyridinoline level (nmol/l) at baseline (p = 0.001). Subsequently, during followup (n = 184 patients) the progression in SHS in the upcoming year was 17% higher for every higher nmol/l pyridinoline level (p = 0.001). The area under the receiver-operation characteristic curve for rapid radiological progression was 0.59. CONCLUSION: Increased pyridinoline serum levels, both at baseline and during the disease course, are associated with more severe joint destruction during the coming year(s), although the predictive accuracy as a sole predictor was moderate.