Modelling spatio-temporal patterns of long-distance Culicoides dispersal into northern Australia.

Novel arboviruses, including new serotypes of bluetongue virus, are isolated intermittently from cattle and insects in northern Australia. These viruses are thought to be introduced via windborne dispersal of Culicoides from neighbouring land masses to the north. We used the HYSPLIT particle dispersal model to simulate the spatio-temporal patterns of Culicoides dispersal into northern Australia from nine putative source sites across Indonesia, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea. Simulated dispersal was found to be possible from each site, with the islands of Timor and Sumba highlighted as the likely principal sources and February the predominant month of dispersal. The results of this study define the likely spatial extent of the source and arrival regions, the relative frequency of dispersal from the putative sources and the temporal nature of seasonal winds from source sites into arrival regions. Importantly, the methodology and results may be applicable to other insect and pathogen incursions into northern Australia.