Factors predicting outcome among opiate addicts after treatment.

Eighty opiate addicts who had been successfully withdrawn from drugs were followed up for a period of six months after leaving treatment. Variables which might have been expected to relate to subsequent abstinence or drug taking were regressed against measures of outcome. Two variables consistently emerged as predictors of outcome. The number of protective factors identified by the subject and a measure of confidence about being able to remain drug free were both related to frequency of drug use during the first two months after leaving treatment, to drug status at six months and to improvement during the six-month period. In addition, the length of previous periods of abstinence related to outcome at six months, as did time spent in treatment, though caution is urged in the interpretation of this latter effect. Although risk factors have been found to relate to relapse there was no relation between perceived risks and outcome. Also, the number of coping strategies identified at admission was only related to outcome during the immediate post-discharge period. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of a model of relapse.