Spatial and temporal variations of river nitrogen exports from major basins in China.

Provincial-level data for population, livestock, land use, economic growth, development of sewage systems, and wastewater treatment rates were used to construct a river nitrogen (N) export model in this paper. Despite uncertainties, our results indicated that river N export to coastal waters increased from 531 to 1,244 kg N km(-2) year(-1) in the Changjiang River basin, 107 to 223 kg N km(-2) year(-1) in the Huanghe River basin, and 412 to 1,219 kg N km(-2) year(-1) in the Zhujiang River basin from 1980 to 2010 as a result of rapid population and economic growth. Significant temporal changes in water N sources showed that as the percentage of runoff from croplands increased, contributions of natural system runoff and rural human and livestock excreta decreased in the three basins from 1980 to 2010. Moreover, the nonpoint source N decreased from 72 to 58 % in the Changjiang River basin, 80 to 67 % in the Huanghe River basin, and 69 to 51 % in the Zhujiang River basin, while the contributions of point sources increased greatly during the same period. Estimated results indicated that the N concentrations in the Changjiang, Huanghe, and Zhujiang rivers during 1980-2004 were higher than those in the St. Lawrence River in Canada and lower than those in the Thames, Donau, Rhine, Seine, and Han rivers during the same period. River N export will reduce by 58, 54, and 57 % for the Changjiang River, Huanghe River, and Zhujiang River in the control scenario in 2050 compared with the basic scenario.