Seasonal migration as a substitute for, or precursor to, permanent migration.

Seasonal migration to national amenity areas is a major form of cyclical migration in the United States. This article examines conditions under which seasonal movement serves as a substitute for, or precursor to, permanent migration among winter visitors to recreational vehicle (RV) parks in the Phoenix, Arizona area. Ties to the home community, ties to the seasonal residence, demographic characteristics, and commitment to a mobile lifestyle are specified as determinants of expectations of moving to Phoenix on a permanent basis. The model is tested using survey data for a sample of 1,001 winter visitors in Phoenix RV parks. Results of a discriminant analysis indicate that place ties and position in the life cycle condition expectations of permanently migrating to a seasonal residence.