An examination of the woodwork effect using national medicaid long-term services and supports data.

A common concern in long-term services and supports (LTSS) policy is the "woodwork effect," which has two components: (1) more people will use publicly funded services if access to home- and community-based services (HCBS) is expanded; and (2) the additional beneficiaries will increase the growth rate of LTSS expenditures. Medicaid LTSS beneficiary and utilization data starting in 1999 indicate modest growth in beneficiaries and expenditures, after adjusting for inflation and the number of people with functional impairments. The data do not provide strong evidence that the shift in Medicaid funding toward HCBS significantly increased or decreased overall Medicaid LTSS spending.