Provenance matters: thermal reaction norms for embryo survival among sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka populations.

Differences in thermal tolerance during embryonic development in Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka were examined among nine populations in a controlled common-garden incubation experiment. Forcing embryonic development at an extreme temperature (relative to current values) of 16° C, representing a future climate change scenario, significantly reduced survival compared to the more ecologically moderate temperature of 10° C (55% v. 93%). Survival at 14° C was intermediate between the other two temperatures (85%). More importantly, this survival response varied by provenance within and between temperature treatments. Thermal reaction norms showed an interacting response of genotype and environment (temperature), suggesting that populations of O. nerka may have adapted differentially to elevated temperatures during incubation and early development. Moreover, populations that historically experience warmer incubation temperatures at early development displayed a higher tolerance for warm temperatures. In contrast, thermal tolerance does not appear to transcend life stages as adult migration temperatures were not related to embryo thermal tolerance. The intra-population variation implies potential for thermal tolerance at the species level. The differential inter-population variation in thermal tolerance that was observed suggests, however, limited adaptive potential to thermal shifts for some populations. This infers that the intergenerational effects of increasing water temperatures may affect populations differentially, and that such thermally mediated adaptive selection may drive population, and therefore species, persistence.