Literature DB >> 23548173

Risk scoring system to predict 3-year survival in patients treated for asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

Francisco Alcocer1, Marjan Mujib, Bruce Lowman, Mark A Patterson, Marc A Passman, Thomas C Matthews, William D Jordan.   

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors and stratify their effect of compromising 3-year survival in patients treated for asymptomatic carotid disease based upon recently updated guidelines from the Society for Vascular Surgery.
METHODS: Outcomes of 506 patients who underwent carotid intervention for asymptomatic carotid disease (1999-2008) were analyzed. Hospital computerized medical records were reviewed. When local records were sparse, Social Security Death Index was queried to confirm mortality. Following multivariable Cox regression analysis, a score was assigned based on the calculated hazard ratio (HR) in the following fashion: HR 1.5-1.9 = 1 point; HR 2.0-3.0 = 2 points; and HR >3 = 3 points. The sum of those points comprised the final score for each patient. Kaplan-Meier analyses were then performed to delineate survival differences.
RESULTS: Seventy patients (13.83%) did not survive beyond 3 years after the procedure. Age >80 years (HR, 1.79; P = .05; score 1), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.99; P < .05; score 1), coronary artery intervention (HR, 2.03; P < .01; score 2), severe chronic kidney disease defined as glomerular filtration rate <30 and not on dialysis (HR, 2.46; P = .03; score 2), dialysis patients (HR, 5.67; P = .001; score 3), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 3.53; P < .001; score 3) negatively influenced 3-year survival. Patients with score ≤2 experienced 3-year mortality of 6.0%, whereas score >2 was associated with 31.6% 3-year mortality (HR, 6.10; P < .001). The score value was not associated with the stroke rate at any time point. The resultant score was validated in a separate population of patients with symptomatic carotid disease.
CONCLUSIONS: This easy predictive score underscores the association of medical risk factors with decreased 3-year survival. This finding may impact future clinical decisions for management of asymptomatic carotid disease.
Copyright © 2013 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Year:  2013        PMID: 23548173     DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2012.12.033

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  J Vasc Surg        ISSN: 0741-5214            Impact factor:   4.268


  5 in total

1.  External Validation of Risk Prediction Models to Improve Selection of Patients for Carotid Endarterectomy.

Authors:  Michiel H F Poorthuis; Reinier A R Herings; Kirsten Dansey; Johanna A A Damen; Jacoba P Greving; Marc L Schermerhorn; Gert J de Borst
Journal:  Stroke       Date:  2021-10-12       Impact factor: 7.914

Review 2.  Management of Patients with Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis May Need to Be Individualized: A Multidisciplinary Call for Action.

Authors:  Kosmas I Paraskevas; Dimitri P Mikhailidis; Hediyeh Baradaran; Alun H Davies; Hans-Henning Eckstein; Gianluca Faggioli; Jose Fernandes E Fernandes; Ajay Gupta; Mateja K Jezovnik; Stavros K Kakkos; Niki Katsiki; M Eline Kooi; Gaetano Lanza; Christos D Liapis; Ian M Loftus; Antoine Millon; Andrew N Nicolaides; Pavel Poredos; Rodolfo Pini; Jean-Baptiste Ricco; Tatjana Rundek; Luca Saba; Francesco Spinelli; Francesco Stilo; Sherif Sultan; Clark J Zeebregts; Seemant Chaturvedi
Journal:  J Stroke       Date:  2021-05-31       Impact factor: 6.967

3.  Risk analysis of carotid stent from a population-based database in Taiwan.

Authors:  Chun-An Cheng; Wu-Chien Chien; Chien-Yeh Hsu; Hui-Chen Lin; Hung-Wen Chiu
Journal:  Medicine (Baltimore)       Date:  2016-08       Impact factor: 1.889

4.  Prediction models for clinical outcome after a carotid revascularisation procedure: A systematic review.

Authors:  Eline J Volkers; Ale Algra; L Jaap Kappelle; Jacoba P Greving
Journal:  Eur Stroke J       Date:  2017-10-24

Review 5.  Prediction Models for Clinical Outcome After a Carotid Revascularization Procedure.

Authors:  Eline J Volkers; Ale Algra; L Jaap Kappelle; Olav Jansen; George Howard; Jeroen Hendrikse; Alison Halliday; John Gregson; Gustav Fraedrich; Hans-Henning Eckstein; David Calvet; Richard Bulbulia; Martin M Brown; Jean-Pierre Becquemin; Peter A Ringleb; Jean-Louis Mas; Leo H Bonati; Thomas G Brott; Jacoba P Greving
Journal:  Stroke       Date:  2018-08       Impact factor: 7.914

  5 in total

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